More than two-thirds (68%) of respondents expect the Fed to begin cutting interest rates sometime in 2024, with the remaining 32% expecting it to wait until 2025 before easing monetary policy.
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in 2024.
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in 2024, according to a survey of asset management professionals conducted by KPMG. The survey found that more than two-thirds (68%) of respondents expect the Fed to begin cutting interest rates sometime in 2024, with the remaining 32% expecting it to wait until 2025 before easing monetary policy.
The Federal Reserve kept raising a key short-term U.S. interest rate to try to slow the economy and tame inflation.
, The next annual update to the CPI will be released Feb. 9, and economists and Fed officials are on guard.
, Automobile prices soared in 2021 contributing heavily to the highest US inflation in 40 years.
Accuracy
No Contradictions at Time
Of
Publication
Deception
(30%)
The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, it presents the idea that inflation has not slowed as much as previously believed and that this was a complete game changer for the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. However, this statement is misleading because it implies that inflation had been slowing down when in fact it had not. Secondly, the article quotes Ellen Zentner stating that she wants to see those revisions to confirm progress but then goes on to say that if there is a repeat of last year's increase in automobile prices, economists doubt there will be any significant change. This contradicts her earlier statement and shows bias towards the idea that inflation has not slowed down as much as previously believed. Lastly, the article presents information about how government underestimated the increase in prices of new and used cars but does not provide any evidence to support this claim.
The article states that inflation seemed to be slowing quickly and hopes grew that the Federal Reserve could soon throttle back its interest-rate hikes. However, it then goes on to say that these updates rarely make waves which contradicts itself.
Fallacies
(70%)
The article contains several fallacies. The author uses an appeal to authority by citing the opinions of economists and Fed officials without providing any evidence or reasoning for their beliefs. Additionally, the author commits a false dilemma by presenting only two options: either inflation will continue to rise or it won't. This oversimplifies a complex issue and ignores other possible outcomes. The article also contains an example of inflammatory rhetoric when the author describes the annual update to the CPI as
Bias
(100%)
None Found At Time Of
Publication
Site
Conflicts
Of
Interest (50%)
Jeffry Bartash has a conflict of interest on the topic of inflation as he is an employee and contributor to MarketWatch which is owned by Dow Jones Media Group. Additionally, Ellen Zentner who was quoted in the article works for Morgan Stanley which may have financial ties with companies affected by inflation.
Jeffry Bartash writes for MarketWatch, a news outlet that is owned by Dow Jones Media Group.
Author
Conflicts
Of
Interest (50%)
Jeffry Bartash has a conflict of interest on the topic of inflation as he is reporting for MarketWatch which is owned by Dow Jones Media Group. This company may have financial ties to industries that are affected by inflation such as consumer goods and real estate.
The Federal Reserve's own guidance for 2024 is for three 25 basis point reductions in rates. However, consensus estimates were for double the number of cuts.
Most respondents to a webcast with BondBloxx forecast just one to two rate cuts in 2024, while just over a third believe three cuts are coming.
Accuracy
No Contradictions at Time
Of
Publication
Deception
(30%)
The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, the author claims that consensus estimates were for double the number of cuts when compared to the Fed's own guidance. However, this statement is false as it implies that there was a unanimous agreement among advisors on rate cuts which does not exist.
The article states 'Consensus estimates were for double the number of cuts.' This is deceptive because it suggests that all experts agreed on the estimate when in fact, this is not true. The author should have provided more context or clarification to avoid confusion.
Fallacies
(75%)
The article contains several examples of informal fallacies. The author uses an appeal to authority by citing the Federal Reserve's guidance and consensus estimates without providing any evidence or context for their reliability. Additionally, the author presents a dichotomy between two opposing views on rate cuts without considering other possibilities or perspectives.
The article contains several examples of informal fallacies.
Bias
(75%)
The article discusses the expectations of fixed income advisors for rate cuts in 2024. The majority of respondents (61%) forecast just one to two rate cuts, while only over a third (35%) believe three cuts are coming. This suggests that there is some disagreement among advisors about the likelihood and number of rate cuts.
Just over a third (35%) believe three cuts are coming
Most respondents (61%) forecast just one to two rate cuts
The Federal Reserve will lower interest rates starting in March for a total of four times this year.
, inflation will hit the central bank's 2% target.
, The trading executive, who last year correctly predicted a soft landing in the US economy, expects the Fed's counterparts in Europe and the UK to follow suit.
Accuracy
No Contradictions at Time
Of
Publication
Deception
(50%)
The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, the author claims that Joshua Schiffrin predicts a soft landing in the US economy last year when he did not make such a prediction. Secondly, the article states that inflation will hit the central bank's 2% target without providing any evidence or data to support this claim. Thirdly, it is stated that Europe and UK will follow suit with Fed's counterparts but no specific details are given about their actions.
The trading executive, who last year correctly predicted a soft landing in the US economy
inflation will hit the central bank’s 2% target
Fallacies
(85%)
The article contains several fallacies. Firstly, the author makes an appeal to authority by stating that Joshua Schiffrin is Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s global head of trading strategy and therefore his predictions should be taken seriously. However, this does not necessarily mean that his predictions are accurate or reliable. Secondly, the article contains a dichotomous depiction of the Federal Reserve's counterparts in Europe and the UK following suit with Schiffrin's prediction by stating
Bias
(75%)
The article contains a statement from the author that implies bias towards monetary policy. The author predicts four rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and inflation hitting their target of 2%. This is an example of monetary bias as it suggests that the Fed will lower interest rates to stimulate economic growth, which could be seen as favorable for certain groups or industries.
The trading executive, who last year correctly predicted a soft landing in the US economy,
Site
Conflicts
Of
Interest (50%)
Lu Wang has a conflict of interest with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. as he is an analyst at the company.
Author
Conflicts
Of
Interest (50%)
Lu Wang has a conflict of interest on the topics of Federal Reserve, interest rates and inflation as he is an economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. which may compromise his ability to act objectively and impartially.
More than two-thirds (68%) of U.S. asset management professionals surveyed by KPMG expect the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates sometime in 2024
The remaining 32% expect the central bank to wait until 2025 before easing monetary policy.
Private debt and private equity were picked by 39% and 38%, respectively, as the asset class that is expected to deliver the highest returns over the next three years.
Accuracy
No Contradictions at Time
Of
Publication
Deception
(30%)
The article is deceptive in several ways. Firstly, the author does not disclose their sources and only quotes from a survey conducted by KPMG without providing any context or information about the methodology used to conduct it. This makes it difficult for readers to verify the accuracy of the findings presented in this article. Secondly, while stating that 68% of asset management professionals expect interest rate cuts in 2024, they do not provide any evidence supporting their claim. The only information provided is a quote from KPMG's survey which does not disclose how many respondents were asked or what the sample size was. Thirdly, while stating that private debt and private equity are expected to deliver the highest returns over the next three years, they do not provide any evidence supporting this claim either. The only information provided is a quote from KPMG's survey which does not disclose how many respondents were asked or what the sample size was. Fourthly, while stating that generative AI will be able to execute 5% to 20% percent of daily tasks that their teams currently perform by the end of 2024, they do not provide any evidence supporting this claim either. The only information provided is a quote from KPMG's survey which does not disclose how many respondents were asked or what the sample size was.
The article quotes a survey conducted by KPMG without providing any context or information about the methodology used to conduct it.
Fallacies
(100%)
None Found At Time Of
Publication
Bias
(85%)
The article contains examples of monetary bias and religious bias. The author uses language that depicts the Federal Reserve as a central bank with power to control interest rates, which is not entirely accurate. Additionally, the author mentions private debt and private equity as expected asset classes for high returns over the next three years without providing any evidence or context about their potential risks.
The article uses language that depicts the Federal Reserve as a central bank with power to control interest rates
The author mentions private debt and private equity as expected asset classes for high returns over the next three years without providing any evidence or context about their potential risks
