Minnesota Braces for Once-in-a-Decade Severe Weather Event: Potential for Damaging Winds, Hail, and Tornadoes

Minneapolis, Minnesota United States of America
A low-pressure system is expected to bring severe weather risk to Minnesota on May 20, 2024.
First wave of storms may bring damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes Monday evening in southern Minnesota.
Flood watch issued for northeastern Minnesota affecting cities such as Stillwater, St Paul, Monticello, Hutchinson, Center City, Elk River, Gaylord, Litchfield, Blaine and Hudson.
Second wave of storms will impact Minnesota Tuesday with potential for heavy rainfall and more severe weather.
Minnesota Braces for Once-in-a-Decade Severe Weather Event: Potential for Damaging Winds, Hail, and Tornadoes

A low-pressure system is expected to bring widespread severe weather risk to Minnesota on Tuesday, May 2024. According to the Twin Cities National Weather Service office, this once-in-a-decade strength low-pressure storm will generate multiple rounds of thunderstorms with the potential for damaging winds, hail, and possibly tornadoes.

The first wave of potentially severe storms is expected Monday evening. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Storm Prediction Center has issued a marginal severe risk (Category 1 of 5) around the Twin Cities for Monday evening, with a higher slight severe risk zone (Category 2 of 5) south of the Twin Cities. The highest chance for severe weather is in southern Minnesota, including towns along Interstate 90 such as Albert Lea, Austin, and Rochester.

The second wave of storms will impact Minnesota on Tuesday. NOAA's High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model shows two main storm waves developing. The first plows through southern Minnesota toward the Twin Cities area Tuesday morning. The second develops across southern Minnesota Tuesday afternoon and races into the Twin Cities late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening.

Heavy rainfall is also expected, with a swath of 2 to more than 4 inches locally from western Minnesota through central Minnesota. The Twin Cities and southern Minnesota are likely to see 1 to 2 inches, but locally up to 3 inches is possible in some areas.

A flood watch has been issued for most of northeastern Minnesota, affecting cities such as Stillwater, St Paul, Monticello, Hutchinson, Center City, Elk River, Gaylord, Litchfield, Blaine, Chanhassen and Hudson. The National Weather Service offices in Twin Cities and Duluth have issued the flood watch.

Stay tuned for updates on severe weather watches and warnings from NOAA.



Confidence

85%

Doubts
  • Exact amount of rainfall in different areas is not definitively stated.
  • Precise location and timing of tornadoes is uncertain.

Sources

99%

  • Unique Points
    • A low-pressure system will track across Minnesota on Tuesday.
    • The system is a once-in-a-decade strength low-pressure storm based on climatology from the Twin Cities National Weather Service office.
    • Multiple rounds of thunderstorms with the potential to produce severe weather are expected through Tuesday.
    • Severe risk areas for Monday evening include southern Minnesota including the Interstate 90 corridor towns of Albert Lea, Austin, and Rochester.
    • Scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop around 7 p.m. Monday in southwestern Minnesota and may arrive in the Twin Cities by around 10 p.m. to 11 p.m.
    • The highest severe risk is south of the Twin Cities, but storms anywhere in the risk area Tuesday have the potential to produce damaging winds and hail, and possibly tornadoes.
    • Two main storm waves are expected Tuesday - the first plows through southern Minnesota toward the Twin Cities area Tuesday morning, and the second develops across southern Minnesota Tuesday afternoon and races into the Twin Cities late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening.
    • Heavy rainfall is also likely across much of Minnesota with a swath of 2 to more than 4 inches locally from western Minnesota through central Minnesota, and the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota appearing likely to see 1 to 2 inches, but locally 3 inches is possible in some areas.
  • Accuracy
    • Severe weather is expected in Minnesota on Tuesday.
    • Multiple waves of rain and thunderstorms will affect Minnesota from late Monday night through Tuesday.
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

96%

  • Unique Points
    • A flood watch has been issued for most of northeastern Minnesota, affecting cities such as Stillwater, St Paul, Monticello, Hutchinson, Center City, Elk River, Gaylord, Litchfield, Blaine, Chanhassen, Hudson and St Cloud.
    • Multiple waves of storms will impact Minnesota on Tuesday.
    • Severe weather is expected in Minnesota on Tuesday.
  • Accuracy
    • A flood watch has been issued for most of central and northeastern Minnesota, including the greater Twin Cities area.
    • Multiple waves of rain and thunderstorms will affect Minnesota from late Monday night through Tuesday.
    • The first wave of storms will focus on southern Minnesota Monday night, with a slight risk for severe weather in the Twin Cities area.
    • The highest chance for severe weather is south of the Twin Cities Monday night across southeastern Minnesota.
    • Scattered storms are expected to develop across southern Minnesota Monday evening, with the best chance for storms around the Twin Cities favoring hours after 10 p.m. through midnight.
    • Multiple waves of storms will impact Minnesota on Tuesday, with a second wave likely to develop in southern Minnesota in the early afternoon hours and race northeast into the greater Twin Cities area by late afternoon into Tuesday evening.
    • Severe weather watches and warnings are likely due to the potential for damaging wind and hail, flooding rainfall, and even a few strong tornadoes.
    • Excessive rainfall may cause flash flooding in areas that see multiple storms stall.
    • The flood watch includes most of northeastern Minnesota, affecting cities such as Stillwater, St Paul, Monticello, Hutchinson, Center City, Elk River, Gaylord, Litchfield, Little Falls, Blaine, Chanhassen
    • Hudson and St Cloud.
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (95%)
    The article contains some instances of appeals to authority and inflammatory rhetoric, but no formal or dichotomous fallacies are present. The author repeatedly quotes and references the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to establish credibility for the severe weather forecast. This is an example of an appeal to authority fallacy, as the author relies on NOAA's expertise rather than providing evidence or reasoning of their own. However, since this is a common practice in meteorology and weather reporting, it does not significantly impact the overall credibility or accuracy of the article. The author also uses inflammatory rhetoric to describe the severity of the storms as 'Stormy Tuesday' and 'an understatement.' This type of language is intended to grab readers' attention and create a sense of urgency, but it does not constitute a logical fallacy. Overall, the article provides valuable information about an impending severe weather event and includes no false or misleading statements.
    • ][The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration][NOAA]'s latest High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model run as of late Monday afternoon shows scattered storms developing across southern Minnesota Monday evening. The best chance for storms around the Twin Cities favors the hours after about 10 p.m. through midnight.
    • Multiple waves of storms will rumble across Minnesota Tuesday.
    • All modes of severe weather are possible Tuesday.
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication

89%

  • Unique Points
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Accuracy
    • Minnesota may experience severe weather
    • Severe weather is expected in Minnesota on Tuesday.
  • Deception (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Fallacies (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Bias (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication
  • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
    None Found At Time Of Publication