Stock Market Selloff in Bond Market: Will the Federal Reserve Cut Interest Rates?

Unique Points

• Wholesale prices rose more than expected in January
• The Producer Price Index increased by 0.3% for the month and fell 0.2% in December
• `Core PPIa, which excludes food and energy, increased by 5%, against expectations for a gain of just 1%
• The consumer price index showed inflation holding stubbornly higher despite Federal Reserve expectations for moderation through the year with a year over year increase of 3.1% in January
• `Core CPIb, which excludes food and energy, was up 5%, on a core basis

Accuracy

• The Producer Price Index jumped by 3% in January from the prior month.
• Wholesale prices rose more than expected in January, according to a U.S. Department of Labor report
• Core PPI increased by 0.5% against expectations for a gain of just 0.1%, and PPI excluding food, energy and trade services jumped by 0.6%.

Deception (30%)

• The statement 'US stocks closed lower on Friday after another hotter-than-expected inflation reading undermined the case for interest rate cuts.' is misleading as it implies a direct causal relationship between two events that are not necessarily connected.
• The article quotes an expert who states 'the market was on a rollercoaster ride this week' but fails to disclose any sources for their information.

Fallacies (100%)

None Found At Time Of Publication

Bias (75%)

• > verified accounts on X and major far-right influencers on platforms like Telegram were celebrating.

Site Conflicts Of Interest (50%)

Author Conflicts Of Interest (50%)

Unique Points

• Wholesale prices rose more than expected in January
• The Producer Price Index increased by 0.3% for the month and fell 0.2% in December
• `Core PPIa, which excludes food and energy, increased by 5%, against expectations for a gain of just 1%
• The consumer price index showed inflation holding stubbornly higher despite Federal Reserve expectations for moderation through the year with a year over year increase of 3.1% in January
• `Core CPIb, which excludes food and energy, was up 5%, on a core basis

Accuracy

• The Producer Price Index jumped by 3% in January from the prior month.
• Wholesale prices rose more than expected in January, according to a U.S. Department of Labor report
• Core PPI increased by 0.5% against expectations for a gain of just 0.1%, and PPI excluding food, energy and trade services jumped by 0.6%.

Deception (30%)

• <br>
• The S&P 500 (^GSPC) dipped 0.5%

Fallacies (100%)

None Found At Time Of Publication

Bias (75%)

• > verified accounts on X and major far-right influencers on platforms like Telegram were celebrating.

Site Conflicts Of Interest (50%)

Author Conflicts Of Interest (50%)

• The article mentions the S&P 500 index multiple times throughout the text without disclosing any potential conflicts of interest.

Unique Points

• Wholesale prices rose more than expected in January
• `Core PPI` increased by 3.9% on a core basis
• The consumer price index (CPI) showed inflation holding stubbornly higher despite Federal Reserve expectations for moderation through the year with a year over year increase of 3.1% in January, down from December but still well ahead of the Fed's goal for 2% inflation
• The report comes just days after the consumer price index showed inflation holding stubbornly higher despite Federal Reserve expectations for moderation through the year

Accuracy

• The Commerce Department reported this week that retail sales in January slid by 0.8%, far more than anticipated

Deception (30%)

• The title suggests that wholesale prices are rising more than expected when in fact they only rose by 0.3%, which is not a significant increase compared to expectations of just 0.1%.

Fallacies (70%)

• > Excluding food and energy, core PPI increased 0.5%, also against expectations for a 0.1% gain.

Bias (100%)

None Found At Time Of Publication

Site Conflicts Of Interest (50%)

• .3% increase in final demand service, .2% decline in final demand energy

Author Conflicts Of Interest (50%)

• .3% increase in final demand service, .2% decline in final demand energy
• .6% jump in hospital outpatient care

Unique Points

• The world's biggest bond market is currently experiencing a selloff in the year 2019
• Stocks are decreasing from a record high at the time of writing on February 16, due to speculation that the Federal Reserve will not be quick to cut interest rates
• An inflation report has been released indicating that inflation may be more persistent than expected

Accuracy

No Contradictions at Time Of Publication

Deception (90%)

• The article does not mention any alternative scenarios or outcomes that could arise from the Fed's decision on interest rates. For example, it does not discuss how a pause or a cut in interest rates could affect bond yields, stock prices, consumer spending, business investment, and other economic variables. It also does not compare the current situation with previous instances when the Fed faced similar challenges or trade-offs between inflation and growth.
• The article does not explain how the producer price index (PPI) signaled inflation being stickier than expected. The PPI measures the average change over time in prices received by domestic producers for their output. It is a lagging indicator of inflation, meaning that it reflects changes in prices that have already occurred or are occurring. A sizable jump in costs of services does not necessarily mean that inflation will persist at a high level, as there may be other factors such as demand, supply, expectations, and policy actions that affect the pace and direction of inflation. The article also does not provide any comparison with previous PPI data or benchmarks to show how significant the increase was.
• The article uses emotive language and rhetorical questions to manipulate the reader's perception and opinion. For example, it asks 'Traders found little encouragement to bid up the market at a time when the Fed bumps into what’s being referred to as a tough “last mile” toward its goals.' This implies that the market is pessimistic and hopeless, while suggesting that the Fed has reached an insurmountable obstacle. It also uses words like 'speculation', 'rumor', 'hunch', or 'guesstimate' to create a sense of uncertainty and doubt.
• The article does not disclose any potential conflicts of interest or sources of funding for itself or its author. For example, it does not reveal if the author is affiliated with any financial institution, think tank, lobby group, media outlet, or other entity that may have a stake in the outcome of the Fed's policy decisions.
• The article does not provide a balanced or comprehensive view of different perspectives and opinions on the topic. For example, it does not mention any dissenting voices from within or outside the Fed who may disagree with its views or have alternative proposals for addressing inflation and growth challenges.
• The article does not provide any sources for its claims or estimates. For example, it does not cite any official statements from the Fed, nor does it refer to any credible data sources such as surveys, reports, indices, indicators, models, or experts that support its arguments. It also does not acknowledge any potential biases or limitations of its own analysis.

Fallacies (100%)

None Found At Time Of Publication

Bias (75%)

• Another report signaling inflation is showing signs of being ‘stickier’ than expected weighed on Wall Street's sentiment, with the producer price index rising on a sizable jump in costs of services.
• The world’s biggest bond market extended this year’s selloff and stocks dropped from a record on speculation that the Federal Reserve will be in no rush to cut interest rates.

Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)

None Found At Time Of Publication

Author Conflicts Of Interest (50%)

Unique Points

• Wholesale costs rose in January at the fastest pace in five months.
• The Producer-Price Index (PPI) rose 0.3% last month, a considerably stronger increase than expected.
• Core wholesale prices, which exclude food, energy and trade margins, rose by an even sharper 0.6% in January.

Accuracy

No Contradictions at Time Of Publication

Deception (30%)

• The numbers Wholesale costs rose in January at the fastest pace in five months
• The cost of goods fell for the fourth month in a row
• Core wholesale prices, which exclude food, energy and trade margins, rose by an even sharper 0.6% in January

Fallacies (75%)

• The producer-price index rose 0.3% last month, a considerably stronger increase than the 0.1% forecast from economists polled by the Wall Street Journal.

Bias (85%)

• Core wholesale prices, which exclude food, energy and trade margins, rose by an even sharper 0.6% in January. That was the biggest increase in a year.
• The cost of services — the main driver of U.S. inflation — climbed 0.6% in January.
• The numbers Wholesale costs rose in January at the fastest pace in five months, possibly another sign that inflation won't slow toward the Federal Reserve's 2% target as fast as hoped. The producer-price index rose 0.3% last month, a considerably stronger increase than the 0.1% forecast from economists polled by the Wall Street Journal.

Site Conflicts Of Interest (50%)

Author Conflicts Of Interest (50%)

• The producer-price index (PPI) shows that wholesale prices rose by 0.3% in January, marking the biggest increase since August.