Economic Cracks: Growth Slows Down, Stock Market Woes, and the Debate over Electric Vehicles

New York, New York, USA United States of America
Economic growth is slowing down, leading some investors to question their convictions.
J.D. Power study found 266 problems per 100 electric vehicles versus 180 per 100 internal combustion engine vehicles.
S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio stands at more than double its average over the last 153 years.
Treasury yield curve inversion is currently the longest of the modern era, which has preceded every U.S. recession since the end of World War II.
U.S. M2 money supply has declined by 3.49% since its all-time high, historically preceding periods of double-digit unemployment and economic depressions.
Economic Cracks: Growth Slows Down, Stock Market Woes, and the Debate over Electric Vehicles

In recent weeks, the economic landscape has shown signs of cracking, with softening growth testing investor convictions and revealing significant divides between the strong and weak performers in Corporate America. According to a report by Bloomberg, economic growth is slowing down, leading some bullish investors to question their convictions.

At the same time, JPMorgan Private Bank released its mid-year outlook titled 'A Strong Economy in a Fragile World,' which revealed that battery electric vehicles are facing several issues. The J.D. Power study found 266 problems per 100 electric vehicles versus 180 per 100 internal combustion engine vehicles.

Meanwhile, some analysts are predicting a stock market crash in the near future based on certain economic indicators. For instance, the U.S. M2 money supply has declined by 3.49% since its all-time high, and historically, such declines have preceded periods of double-digit unemployment and economic depressions.

Additionally, the Treasury yield curve inversion is currently the longest of the modern era, which has preceded every U.S. recession since the end of World War II. Furthermore, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio stands at more than double its average over the last 153 years.

Despite these concerns, it is important to note that economic indicators can be subject to interpretation and are not always accurate predictors of future events. It is crucial for investors to remain informed and skeptical of all information provided by mainstream media sources, which may have biases or agendas.



Confidence

85%

Doubts
  • Historical precedents of economic indicators do not always accurately predict future events.
  • The JPMorgan Private Bank report's findings on electric vehicle issues may not be representative of the entire industry.

Sources

78%

  • Unique Points
    • U.S. M2 money supply has declined by 3.49% since its all-time high.
    • M2 money supply decline has historically preceded periods of double-digit unemployment and economic depressions.
    • Treasury yield curve inversion is the longest of the modern era.
    • Yield-curve inversion has preceded every U.S. recession since the end of World War II.
    • S&P 500’s Shiller P/E ratio stands at more than double its average over the last 153 years.
    • Five prior instances of S&P 500’s Shiller P/E ratio topping 30 resulted in significant stock market losses.
  • Accuracy
    No Contradictions at Time Of Publication
  • Deception (30%)
    The article makes several statements that could be considered sensational or implying fear of a stock market crash in 2024 based on three predictive indicators. While these indicators have historically correlated with downturns in the stock market, they do not guarantee a crash will occur. The author also uses emotional language and manipulation by stating that 'less capital in circulation leads to fewer discretionary purchases by consumers' and 'it's historically been a cautionary tale that a bear market and/or potential crash awaits.'
    • The five prior instances of the Shiller P/E ratio topping 30 eventually resulted in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and/or Nasdaq Composite shedding between 20% and 89% of their value.
    • What they don’t do is guarantee anything. It’s impossible to concretely forecast what stocks will do a week, a month, or even a year from now. But when investors take a step back and widen their perspectives, it becomes a lot easier to forecast where stocks are collectively headed.
    • The four previous instances where M2 fell by at least 2% correlated with periods of double-digit unemployment and economic depressions.
  • Fallacies (85%)
    The author uses three predictive indicators to suggest a potential stock market crash in 2024: a historic decline in U.S. M2 money supply, the longest yield-curve inversion of the modern era, and the valuation-based Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio being more than double its average. While these indicators have historically had a correlation to downside on Wall Street, they do not guarantee a short-term directional move for the major stock indexes. The author also provides historical context and data to support his claims, but this should not be taken as definitive proof of an impending crash.
    • ]Historically, M2 money supply has been expanding with virtually no interruption. In other words, more capital has been needed in circulation to support a growing economy. But since peaking in April 2022, M2 has meaningfully fallen off.[
    • For some context, this is more than double its 17.13 average when back-tested over the last 153 years.
    • What’s of interest with the Shiller P/E is examining how Wall Street’s major stock indexes have responded when it’s surpassed 30 during a bull market.
  • Bias (80%)
    The author expresses a bias towards predicting a potential stock market crash in 2024 based on three specific indicators: the historic decline in U.S. M2 money supply, the longest yield-curve inversion of the modern era, and the valuation-based Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio being more than double its historical average. The author's language is strongly suggestive of an impending crash.
    • Each time a Depression with double-digit unemployment rates followed.
      • The four previous instances where M2 fell by at least 2% correlated with periods of double-digit unemployment and economic depressions.
        • What’s of interest with the Shiller P/E is examining how Wall Street’s major stock indexes have responded when it’s surpassed 30 during a bull market. Since 1871, this has occurred six times: ... The five prior instances of the Shiller P/E ratio topping 30 eventually resulted in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and/or Nasdaq Composite shedding between 20% and 89% of their value.
        • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
          None Found At Time Of Publication
        • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
          None Found At Time Of Publication

        98%

        • Unique Points
          • Softening economic growth is testing bullish investor convictions
          • Big divides between the strong and the weak across Corporate America
        • Accuracy
          • Equity market closed out another blistering quarter
          • Fresh meme-stock mania took center stage on Wall Street this week
        • Deception (100%)
          None Found At Time Of Publication
        • Fallacies (100%)
          None Found At Time Of Publication
        • Bias (100%)
          None Found At Time Of Publication
        • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
          None Found At Time Of Publication
        • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
          None Found At Time Of Publication

        78%

        • Unique Points
          • The Nasdaq and S&P 500 have had mid-teens growth in 2024.
          • Nvidia Corporation accounts for approximately one third of the overall market's gains to date.
          • None of the expected six to seven rate cuts from the Fed have occurred yet.
          • Profit growth for the S&P 500 has been negative on a year-over-year basis for two quarters.
          • Q1 U.S. Corporate Profits fell -2.7% on a quarter-over-quarter basis.
          • U.S. GDP growth slowed from 4.9% in Q3 2023 to 1.4% in Q1 2024.
          • Consumer spending only rose 1.5% in the first quarter, equating to a decline when accounting for inflation.
          • The average American household has lost buying power due to inflation since the start of 2021.
          • Consumers have spent excess savings and are turning to credit cards and multiple jobs to make ends meet.
          • Consumer delinquency rates are rising along with unemployment rate.
          • Starbucks, Target, McDonald's, Home Depot reported disappointing results due to consumer pressures
          • Walgreens Boots Alliance had its worst daily loss in some 30 years after warning of increasing consumer pressures and store closures
          • Nike provided tepid guidance due to weak consumer demand.
          • Well-known H&M and Levi's warned of poor consumer metrics this week.
          • Manufacturing is in a weak state with the Dallas Fed Services Index in negative territory for 25 months straight
          • The Leading Economic Indicators have declined in 26 of the last 27 months, indicating a recession may be on the horizon.
          • Average 30-Year mortgage rates have more than doubled since March 2022, impacting housing sector and existing home sales
          • Commercial real estate values are plunging leading to increased delinquency and default rates
          • The federal government is engaging in massive deficit spending (6.7% of GDP in FY2024)
          • The U.S. market capitalization to GDP ratio is at an all-time high, even during the late stages of the Internet Boom
          • The overall market is overvalued using many key metrics and is selling close to 22 times forward S&P 500 earnings when the risk-free yield on the 10-Year Treasury is at 4.3%
        • Accuracy
          No Contradictions at Time Of Publication
        • Deception (35%)
          The article contains selective reporting by focusing on negative economic indicators and ignoring positive ones. The author also makes editorializing statements such as 'it is difficult to be optimistic about the overall economy' and 'this will not end well for those investors who are not positioned accordingly'. There is emotional manipulation through the use of phrases like 'distressed consumers' and 'challenged state of most American households'. The article also implies facts without linking to peer-reviewed studies, such as the statement that 'government statistics underestimate the true rate of inflation'.
          • Given tens of millions of homeowners have ‘golden handcuffs’ from their existing low mortgage rates, it is doubtful mortgage activity picks up in the coming quarters.
          • The huge rally off the lows of the last market swoon that ended late in October has also occurred against the backdrop of a clearly slowing economy.
          • It is difficult to be optimistic about the overall economy given the increasingly challenged state of most American households.
        • Fallacies (75%)
          The article contains a few informal fallacies in the form of exaggerated language and inflammatory rhetoric. The author states that the 'huge rally off the lows of the last market swoon... has occurred against the backdrop of a clearly slowing economy' and that 'it is difficult to be optimistic about the overall economy given...the increasingly challenged state of most American households.' These statements are not supported by specific data or analysis, but rather serve to create a negative tone. Additionally, the author claims that 'the American consumer provides for nearly 70% of U.S. economic activity,' which is a generalization that may overstate the importance of consumer spending.
          • The huge rally off the lows of the last market swoon... has occurred against the backdrop of a clearly slowing economy.
          • it is difficult to be optimistic about the overall economy given...the increasingly challenged state of most American households.
          • the American consumer provides for nearly 70% of U.S. economic activity.
        • Bias (80%)
          The author expresses a negative outlook on the current economic situation and specifically calls out the struggling consumer. He uses language that depicts consumers as being under increasing stress and in distress. This is an example of bias towards portraying one side (in this case, consumers) in a negative light.
          • Consumer delinquency rates are rising
            • Consumers have been turning to credit cards often to make ends meet
              • Consumer spending only rose 1.5% in the first quarter.
                • The average American household has lost buying power to inflation since the start of 2021
                • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
                  None Found At Time Of Publication
                • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
                  None Found At Time Of Publication

                89%

                • Unique Points
                  • JPMorgan Private Bank released its 2024 mid-year outlook titled ‘A Strong Economy in a Fragile World’.
                  • J.D. Power study revealed 266 problems per 100 electric vehicles versus 180 per 100 internal combustion engine vehicles.
                • Accuracy
                  • The major indexes closed lower on Friday.
                  • Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have closed higher in seven of the prior nine months.
                  • Nasdaq also closed higher in nine of the prior ten weeks.
                • Deception (100%)
                  None Found At Time Of Publication
                • Fallacies (100%)
                  None Found At Time Of Publication
                • Bias (100%)
                  None Found At Time Of Publication
                • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
                  None Found At Time Of Publication
                • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
                  None Found At Time Of Publication

                77%

                • Unique Points
                  • Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research, revised down his target for the S&P 500 to 3,750 due to expectations of a sudden and unexpected U.S. recession.
                  • The recession could begin later this year or in early 2025.
                  • Global growth is expected to weaken significantly due to the economic pain caused by the recession.
                  • Lower-income Americans have depleted their pandemic-era savings and delinquency rates for credit cards and auto loans are climbing.
                • Accuracy
                  No Contradictions at Time Of Publication
                • Deception (35%)
                  The article contains editorializing and sensationalism. The author uses phrases like 'apocalyptic forecast', 'most apocalyptic forecast', and 'sudden and unexpected recession' to create a sense of urgency and fear. He also quotes Peter Berezin making dire predictions about the economy, which are not backed up by any evidence in the article.
                  • Wall Street has a new most apocalyptic forecast for stocks.
                  • Most Read from MarketWatch
                  • It comes courtesy of Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research, who said in a report shared with MarketWatch on Thursday that he has revised down his target for the S&P 500 to 3,750
                • Fallacies (75%)
                  The author makes several assertions in the article, some of which contain informal fallacies. The author's forecast for a recession and the resulting decline in the S&P 500 is an opinion and not a fallacy. However, there are instances where the author uses inflammatory rhetoric to describe this forecast as 'apocalyptic.' This is an example of hyperbole, which is an informal fallacy. The author also states that 'data on bank balances already show that lower-income Americans appear to have depleted their pandemic-era savings,' but does not provide any evidence or data to support this claim. This is an example of a hasty generalization, which is another informal fallacy.
                  • Move over, J.P. Morgan – we have a new contender for most apocalyptic stock-market forecast.
                  • It comes courtesy of Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research, who said in a report shared with MarketWatch on Thursday that he has revised down his target for the S&P 500 SPX to 3,750 – lower than J.P. Morgan Global Research’s year-end target of 4,200, the previous Wall Street low – due to expectations that the U.S. will soon enter a sudden and unexpected recession.
                  • But for those more inclined toward tactical trades, Berezin recommended a few, including shorting the price of bitcoin BTCUSD and betting that falling bond yields will drag the U.S. dollar DXY lower against the Japanese yen USDJPY.
                • Bias (80%)
                  The author expresses a clear bias towards the possibility of an economic recession and its potential impact on the stock market. He quotes Peter Berezin extensively to support this view, using language that depicts a dire situation for both the US economy and global markets.
                  • As delinquency rates for credit cards and auto loans – already at levels unseen since 2010 – continue to climb, banks could opt to raise their lending standards
                    • He expects growth in Europe – which is only just starting to pick up – to slow. And China, which is still struggling in the aftermath of the collapse of a real-estate bubble, could also succumb.
                      • It comes courtesy of Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research, who said in a report shared with MarketWatch on Thursday that he has revised down his target for the S&P 500 SPX to 3,750
                        • Once the recession envisioned by Berezin arrives, the Federal Reserve likely won’t swoop in to stop it
                        • Site Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
                          None Found At Time Of Publication
                        • Author Conflicts Of Interest (100%)
                          None Found At Time Of Publication